The absence of a Limerick senior football team from the McGrath cup leaves us a little bit short on options this week, particularly since it’s hard to have any confidence regarding the chances of the three local college sides. UL put in a decent showing last year against Waterford, however a home fixture against UCC looks very tricky, even allowing for the Cork college losing several key players from last year. Mary I too look overmatched by Cork IT, while any money you want to spend on Limerick IT against Cork would be as well spent on your local prayer box for St Jude, rather than in your local bookies. (St Jude being the patron saint of hopeless causes, in case that didn’t come up at midnight mass!)
Looking around the country however, there are a few teams that could be worth keeping on side. At the time of writing we are only armed with guide prices – team news could change everything in between now and Sunday – but there are a few teams that should be odds against and would be worth backing if that turns out to be the case.
Certainly it would a huge shock if Longford weren’t the odds on favourites to beat Carlow at Dr Cullen Park in the O’Byrne Cup, but Jack Sheedy’s charges have been very poor in pre-season challenge games and Carlow tend to be reasonably competitive at this time of year. It goes without saying that in the white heat of championship, Longford would expect to account for Carlow and we’d expect them to do so too, but at anything bigger than 6/4 for a January tie, we’d be keeping Carlow on side.
The big game of the day is likely to be Westmeath against Dublin at Mullingar and here too, a home win is not as unlikely as people might think. Every Westmeath player will remember the filleting that they suffered against the Dubs at Croke Park last Summer, but aside from that motivation, there are a lot of factors in their favour here. Manager Paul Bealin is a native Dub and won’t want to be shown up by his native county, this is a mature Westmeath team that won’t be too badly hit with absentees playing with their college, and it’s now customary that All Ireland champions struggle in January. A Dublin win is still the most likely outcome, but if Westmeath are offered at 3/1 or bigger, they’re worth a small nibble.
Finally, of all the college teams, keep IT Sligo on your side in their first round game against Roscommon at Elphin. The Sligo students have been handed an horrendous draw for the Sigerson Cup this year and their 25/1 odds for that competition reflect the fact that they’ll have to beat DCU and DIT – last year’s finalists – away from home, just to reach the final four. However they have a lot of talent and at anything over 2/1, they’re good value to cause a shock here.
by Kevin Egan, for Paddy Power
