Crunching the numbers on an Irish Six Nations win

The Irish side in action against England last weekend. Photo: David Fitzgerald.

THE odds on Ireland winning the Six Nations this Saturday are hugely stacked in their favour.

Even if the Irish lose to Scotland and England are beaten by France, they will still be crowned champions. If they don’t lose to Scotland at the Aviva Stadium, Ireland will win the Six Nations Championship outright.

If Ireland lose to Scotland but get a losing bonus point and a try bonus point, they will win the championship. This would put them on 18 points, which cannot be passed.

But there are a few scenarios that may not lead to clear glory. If England win against France in Lyon with a try bonus point and Ireland lose to Scotland without a bonus point, England will win the title. A bonus point win will put England on 17 points while a loss for Ireland without a bonus point will leave them on 16.

Another result hovers in the distance: Scotland can still win the Six Nations Championship if they get a bonus point win against Ireland (winning by at least 39 points), deny Ireland a bonus point and England fail to win or, if they win, fail to win by 45 points and score no bonus point.

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In the run up to this final game, the Irish players will have put the trauma of that defeat behind them and have their eyes on another Six Nations triumph.

The Grand Slam would have been nice, but right from the start of the campaign lifting the trophy was the real goal.

Some media outlets post-match were keen to point at Munster’s Conor Murray and Peter O’Mahony as the villains for the dramatic defeat. On the subject of Munster, their coaching staff must have pasted the stats after their last outing against Zebre on the blackboard.

Full-back Mike Haley was on fire on his comeback and he topped the carries chart with 23. A stunning performance resulted with him covering the most metres class with 17; Alex Nankivell beat defenders 11 times and in the overall Top Players After R11 section, Gavin Coombes topped the carries with 165.

Overall, in the Top Team Season Totals, the Reds were tops with 1,461 carries.