WHAT’S new? Munster have it all to do in a Heineken Cup pool and only one game left in which to do it.
Once more the Red Army will face a top European side in the knowledge that a home win, with four tries, should be enough to secure a last eight spot.
Great days at Thomond Park, such as the ‘Miracle Match’ and the victory over Saracens this season, will have to be replicated and more for Munster to scrape into the last eight of this season’s elite competition.
The normal hype and anticipation surrounding a do or die tie in Thomond Park has been replaced with anxiousness and doubt. Munster’s current form does not point to a home win this weekend, never mind a bonus point win.
Stale, toothless and dare I say it, leaderless, performances against Cardiff and Edinburgh have left more questions than answers.
Munster’s failure to secure a four try bonus point in Murrayfield last weekend against one of the worst teams to ever grace this competition is a telling factor. One which a week of soul searching and hard training will not fix.
Munster’s gameplan is now more under the microscope than ever. The advent of video analysis has made all team’s patterns and plays some what predictable to the trained eye. Munster’s new tactics however are becoming so tediously predictable, that even when watching on TV, you can almost tell what is going to happen next. Imagine how easy is must be when you are playing against it.
Win or lose on Sunday 20 afternoon (kick off at 12.45pm), the debate on Rob Penney’s new gameplan will rage on. Some will never accept it. Others will, once of course it produces more stars above the crest.
The story of the week is that Racing Metro are going to send a bit part team to Thomond Park. The rich men from Paris are no longer in the mix in Europe, which means their focus will revert to the Top14.
With the result of Toulon and Montpelier being known before Munster enter into battle, Penney’s charges will know exactly what is needed. The New Zealand coach spoke at the start of the season about being in a ‘pit’ and that exiting that pit would take a lot of work and belief. Let’s hope the light outside that pit is the last eight.
The Permutations
EVEN though I do hate the commentators’ saying of ‘time for the calculators’ it does seems that this weekend we may need some help working out the permutations.
There is a simple situation which all fans would love to see and that is a Toulon win in Montpelier.
This would take Montpelier out of the picture.
Should this happen, Munster and Leinster would go through on 20 points should they get 5 from this weekend’s ties.
Now, should both Leinster and Munster finish on 20 and another team, be they Montpelier, Toulouse or Leicester, then the tie break situation would apply and the team with the most tries scored would go through. If that stat was level too, then aggregate points would count.
The fact the Munster play Racing Metro, after the Toulon game, means the Reds will know what they need to do.
To switch codes for two seconds, Bill Shankly of Liverpool FC fame once said, “Put the ball in the net and ask questions later”.
Munster need to secure the 5 points and then worry about abacus and calculations later.
